Moldova because of Transnistria that will likely declare independence as soon as Russia creates a land bridge there. Taiwan because China has a civil war to finish ending it's decades-long cease fire and it saw how well Russia was doing with Ukraine. After that it's anyone's guess, but I think since we're on a roll-back with Afghanistan, why not Iraq as well? It has a shiite majority like Iran and the shiites have traditionally leaned more towards Russia/China. Hungary will leave the EU by then and unlike the UK, it's departure will be punished by force as everyone knows which groups and organisations it will try to join. Meanwhile Syria kicks out the US and Turkey. Saudi Arabia, not wanting those dollars anymore, but Rubles and Yuan will go into civil war as the US backs whatever group is willing to get paid for it. And after that I think it's Turkey's turn. The Kurds have been betrayed by the US so many times and Turkey has always been the outsider of NATO. So support for Turkey isn't the greatest. Then the whole of the US/EU/UK/AU/NZ comes after that, with a civil war starting in the US and everyone taking sides of Dems or Reps and all it's Euro-satellites will follow taking sides, although some of them in EU might decide in the EU decide to join Russia or China instead. Once that's going on, Israel will do something stupid and attack yet again Syria or any other neighbouring country and gets destroyed.

Last prediction I thought Canada was going to be pulled into the US civil war, but with the recent development I actually think Canada is up first. The Freedom Convoy is yet another center to far-right laborer movement. The issues are loss of fossil power, tech centralization and high inflation as Canada copies the US policy of printing itself out of an economic crisis, while the protest is about removing red tape. Removing vaccine mandates not going to solve the inflation crisis Canada has together with the US^1^ and the right wing protest seems to have backing from the Canadian police, so neither placating the protest nor attacking the protest will stop the protests. That's why I think the protests will not stop and eventually turn into the violent coup the US Republicans and Trumpians are salivating for. The right wing media pundits are openly cheering it on and rich right wing USians are very likely the anonymous financial backers. For them it will be a right wing coup and Canada will have to pay for it. Once the coup has succeeded in Canada, they will try to do the same in the US, New Zealand, Australia, France (;\_;), Netherlands (;\_;) etc. Currently the protesters are telling the media and each other that they are nothing but peaceful while blocking roads with concrete blocks supplied by the Canadian police, something that I think the US right wing has made illegal two years ago during the George Floyd riots and even went as far as to legalize for counter rioters to just drive over protesters in at least one state if they put up road blocks. ---- ^1^ And the EU/UK, but the EU is not on the same continent and is going to have a different consequence.

Having seen lots of youtube scenario videos, I keep finding them being a bit... unrealistic in terms of what's going to happen and why. The most agreeable scenario I've found of which the picture is from is taken from http://thinkingwayoutsidethebox.org/?page_id=92 and has been my initial thinking of how the secession in the civil war will play out. Two blocks of blue states and one block of red states. The three immediate major factors of the Second American Civil war are going to be rapidly. First rising debt, second rising income inequality and third and most importantly, these two issues causes a rift in it's two-party system. Short explanation of how this came to be: The major income inequality is due to the fall of the USSR and the lack of fear of a socialist revolution in the US causing unrest, unlike in the 1930s, where the US decided to start social democratic reforms. The debt is caused by no longer having the virtually infinite amount of cheap energy resources it used to have. Shale oil is expensive to produce and it's massive production and any use in manufacturing, transport or otherwise is taking a toll on it's entire economy. Solar and wind power are becoming cheaper than coal. Where coal is a fossil fuel that's very unevenly distributed in favor of the US, solar and wind are very evenly distributed over the entire planet. 1a) The first problem is that the democratic party has no strong left wing circle. It keeps veering off too far right socially as it keeps taking donations and is corrupt to the core. It seems to not want to go left-wing at all, but in the first place pro-feminist and in second place pro-Afro American instead. It is concerned about the elites of those two groups and keeping out the socialists. This is not going to sit well with those who are getting poorer and poorer from it. This will cause a rift in the party itself. 1b) The republican party on the other hand has the issue of not getting any chances to win elections through majority vote at all. Trump won partly as even some socialists voted for him out of spite against the feminist ruling circle, just because they felt betrayed by their own party. It's also why Trump wasn't getting their vote the second time as the democratic tactic this time around was not to insult it's voters, but use mass social media censorship. This didn't anger the left-wing voters as much as it did the far and extreme right. If the republican party sees itself losing time and time again, but it's voter base doesn't want to go left, it will have to take desperate measures in order to retain it's power. And that's what my Civil War scenario is going to be about. -- 2024: Centre-right victory -- The first thing that will happen is that the most left-wing candidate of the US democrats will get the vote in the US in 2024. Let's say Alexandria Ocasio Cortez whose policies will look like a centre-right European party, that is to say moderate liberal or maybe even social liberal. Despite the US going into economic turmoil with a democratic leader, people will this time vote more left, rather than go back republican as more people do not want to work for less than what they pay their rent for. -- 2025: Internal secession --- The blue states are being partitioned! Sick and tired of losing, Republicans from blue states secede in order to gain more voting clout. Starting with Liberty state from Washington State and then at two more in Oregon and California that quickly follow. -- 2026: Maple red revolution -- A color revolution has descended upon Canada and it's color is red! Despite it's opponents arguing that the color should really be white a red revolution has gotten it's grip on Canada, with Western Canada seceding from the Eastern coast as they battle over taxes from sands. Meanwhile in the U.S. the Republican are still anxious about not having enough votes to turn the tide of the elections by 2028. With the internal secession ball rolling, the Republicans have devised up a plan to expand outward into Canada, starting a color revolution in order to get Canadian provinces to secede towards the US. These will be all states West from Ontario. Vancouver protests and secedes from British Colombia to join Washington state. -- 2027: Californian Secession -- West-Canada has joined the United States! Pacific strip forms New California! Unrest in Portland, Detroit, New Orleans and more! Things get really out of hand. All the smaller states on the Pacific strip have decided to band together and form some sort of Union called New California, with Portland as the 'capital sanctuary city'. Portland meanwhile wants to form an occupy zone again, but this time it's not a couple of blocks but the entire city. 'Defund the police' has become 'Deport the police' as in out of Portland and this trend takes further root in New California, Detroit and New Orleans. Despite AOC at the helm of the country, she is sending a small amount of troops to California and this time there's violence with dozens of casaulties. This leads to the whole Pacific strip deciding on a referendum to deport all Republican police forces from their new formed land and talks of full secession is at hand. A few months later it happens. New California has fully seceded in order to deport the police! Republicans then call for a quick re-election without New California in their midst, as they now feel they can finally win elections and hyperinflation is still raging since 2022. At the same time, there's talk of an East Coast secession and Democratic cities in Red states are getting nervous, because they can't secede as they would become islands. -- 2028: War begins -- The United States is at war with New California, New Orleans and Detroit! The Republicans argue that the secessionists started it and vice versa. A "coup" has been done by the Republicans and have succeeded in taking the White House. What happened is that the Republicans rushed to introduce a law to exclude New California from voting on the president entirely and is treated like Puerto Rico. The issues named for taking such radical measures by the Republicans are: - AOC has betrayed the country by letting New California secede. - New California lifted some of the trade blockades with China. - New California's northern border should not have included Vancouver. - New California seems to be getting an awful lot of goods from China. The issues named by the Democrats for fully seceding are: - Barred from voting. - Increase in racist laws. - Increase in sexist laws. - Lack of trust in the new president. After secession, the US immediately declares war on New California and Republicans are talking about a cake walk. Having declared New California a Chinese outpost, the US attacks New California and at that moment a civil war starts in the rest of the states in the US. -- 2029-2040: Over a hundred million dead -- The war will be extremely bloody with no clear winner except China for a long long time. The civil war will also expand beyond the US/Canada to the UK, Europe, Australia, New Zealand and many other nations around the world. China/Russia being an exception. ---- Revision 0.1 (2021-12-08) * Intro + 2024-2027 Revision 0.2 (2021-12-09) * Grammar error fixes and changes. * New Californian secession no longer is immediately external. * 2028-2040 Revision 0.3 (2021-12-09) * Republican military coup is now a "rush and bar" voting coup.

I'm curious what the Lemmygrad community thinks about upcoming unrest in the US. With civil unrest growing as more people realize that the foundation of the American state is built on the skeletons of minorities and is satiated with the blood of the 'unworthy', which came to a head last summer with protesting. And with future summers becoming hotter, and hotter, to the point that survival in parts of the US will become nye impossible, it's sure that the United States will become more hellish than it already is. What do y'all think the outcomes of this might be? What do y'all think unrest in the US would look like? What timeline do you think is most realistic? Are you prepared for unrest? What are your plans?

Climate change is projected to cause the average temperature of much of the United States to be above livable levels for extended periods. By 2100, it appears to be projected that large swaths of the American south will be uninhabitable for much of the year.  Because of this, I could see a mass exodus of USians from the southeast leaving their homes behind to move north. If not into the north of the United States, then into Canada. Further, I speculate this event would wear heavily on Canadian politics, and be a sparking event for Canadian Fascism.

This one's probably not going to happen. I would assume the fracture of the power of the American state would allow for a power vacuum to form. I would further assume certain polarized demographic bubbles in the US wouldn't feel confident allowing the legal government of the United States to govern them. From these assumptions, I think it's possible but unlikely that North America will see a rise of warlords. Perhaps this could be like China's warlord era, or perhaps it would be unlike anything anyone's seen before - who knows? Regardless, I'll reiterate, probably not going to happen.