www.youtube.com

Intro to the PBS show MYSTERY! using animation of Edward Gorey.

Chess dryguy • Now • 100%

FIDE vs. lichess rating comparison

This is an analysis I did some time ago comparing FIDE ratings to lichess ratings. The biggest part of the work was finding a reliable way to get both ratings for the same set of players. A lot of players on lichess post their FIDE ratings, but unfortunately, some players will post joke ratings, or just outright lie. In order to avoid "liar's bias" in the self-reported FIDE ratings, I used two different methods to independently look up FIDE ratings [directly from FIDE.](https://ratings.fide.com/download.phtml) In the first method, I took advantage of the fact that many lichess users post their FIDE ID numbers to their lichess profiles, enabling direct lookup of their ratings. In the second method, I used lichess profile data to create a "key" consisting of name, title, and country. In cases where the key is unique, and is present in both the lichess and FIDE data sets, I can then look up the FIDE rating for that user. Finally, to ensure I have the correct player, I only keep the data point if the player's self-reported FIDE rating matches the one I looked up. Out of 628,200 lichess profiles, I was able to harvest 5957 FIDE ratings. This is plenty of data for looking at the overall correlation between the two ratings. It turns out, there is a large spread present in the ratings data. In other words, if you know someone's rating in one system, your estimate of their rating in the other system will be very imprecise. To give people a better feel for how (un)reliable the estimates are, [each graph here shows scatter plots of FIDE standard ratings versus the various ratings for different lichess time controls.](https://imgur.com/a/QgYgEZr) The red line in each plot is a robust linear regression of the data, while the blue lines show quantile regressions for the 97.5, 50 and 2.5 percentiles. In other words, 95% of players fall between the two dotted blue lines. For example, about 95% of players with a lichess blitz rating of 2500 will have a FIDE standard rating between about 2000 to 2500, so if you have a blitz rating of 2500, you could roughly estimate your FIDE as 2250 +- 250. Note that even though this is about the tightest correlation shown, the precision isn't great. Apparently people just vary a lot. Maybe it has something to do with skill playing online not being quite the same as playing in person. One rather unexpected thing that stands out in the data, is that the correlation is worst at the fastest and slowest time controls. Since most [lichess time controls](https://lichess.org/faq#time-controls) average less than 25 minutes per game, compared to FIDE's typical 90 minutes for the first 40 moves, I was surprised to see that blitz has the tightest correlation. Here are the linear regression coefficients, since I'm sure someone will ask for them (x indicates the slope): ``` [1] "ultraBullet" Coefficients: (Intercept) x 1265.331 0.473 [1] "bullet" Coefficients: (Intercept) x 722.0768 0.6261 [1] "blitz" Coefficients: (Intercept) x 41.4256 0.9074 [1] "rapid" Coefficients: (Intercept) x 309.9946 0.7962 [1] "classical" Coefficients: (Intercept) x 1161.4994 0.4038 ```

World News dryguy • Now • 100%

Justice Alito accepted Alaska resort vacation from GOP donors, report says

apnews.com

Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito accepted a 2008 trip to a luxury fishing lodge in Alaska from two wealthy Republican donors, one of whom repeatedly had interests before the court. That's according to the nonprofit investigative journalism organization ProPublica, which also reported that that the conservative jurist did not disclose the trip on his financial disclosure that year. Alito flew to the fishing lodge aboard the private plane of billionaire Republican donor Paul Singer, whose hedge fund has brought roughly a dozen cases before the court. Alito did not recuse himself from participating in any of those cases. His accomodations at the lodge were paid for by another wealthy donor. Alito said ProPublica “misleads” readers.

Space dryguy • Now • 100%

What were the first words spoken on the moon for each mission?

Everyone knows Neil Armstrong's first words from the Moon were "That's one small step for (a) man; one giant leap for mankind," but what about the other astronauts and later missions? I picked through transcripts of each mission to find out. **tl;dr**: **Apollo 11** **Armstrong**: "That's one small step for (a) man; one giant leap for mankind." **Aldrin**: "Beautiful view!" ... "Magnificent desolation." \-- **Apollo 12** **Conrad**: "Whoopie! Man, that may have been a small one for Neil, but that's a long one for me." **Bean**: "Okay. My, that Sun is bright." ... "It feels good." \-- **Apollo 14** **Shepard**: "Okay, you're right. Al is on the surface. And it's been a long way, but we're here." **Mitchell**: "That last one is a long one." \-- **Apollo 15** **Scott**: "Okay, Houston. As I stand out here in the wonders of the unknown at Hadley, I sort of realize there's a fundamental truth to our nature. Man must explore. And this is exploration at its greatest." **Irwin**: "Boy, that front pad is really loose, isn't it?" \-- **Apollo 16** **Young**: "There you are: Mysterious and Unknown Descartes. Highland plains. Apollo 16 is gonna change your image. I'm sure glad they got ol' Brer Rabbit, here, back in the briar patch where he belongs." **Duke**: "Fantastic! Oh, that first foot on the lunar surface is super, Tony!" \-- **Apollo 17** **Cernan**: "I'm on the footpad. And, Houston, as I step off at the surface at Taurus-Littrow, we'd like to dedicate the first step of Apollo 17 to all those who made it possible." **Schmitt**: "Hey, who's been tracking up my lunar surface?" (The transcript for Apollo 17 was a little unclear at which point Schmitt set foot on the Moon. I am guessing about which line was his first on lunar soil.) --- **[Apollo 11](http://history.nasa.gov/alsj/a11/a11.step.html#1094324)** 109:24:12 **Armstrong**: Okay. I'm going to step off the LM now. (Long Pause) [Neil has his right hand on the ladder and will step down with his left foot, leaving his right foot on the footpad. As he reaches down with his foot, the 16-mm film indicates that there isn't much slack in the LEC. In the TV record, the LEC is just barely visible against the black sky.] 109:24:23 **Armstrong**: That's one small step for (a) man; one giant leap for mankind. (Long Pause) [At the time of the mission, the world heard Neil say "That's one small step for man; one giant leap for mankind". As Andrew Chaikin details in A Man on the Moon, after the mission, Neil said that he had intended to say 'one small step for a man' and believed that he had done so. However, he also agreed that the 'a' didn't seem to be audible in the recordings. The important point is that the world had no problem understanding his meaning. However, over the decades, people interested in details of the mission - including your editor - have listened repeatedly to the recordings, without hearing any convincing evidence of the 'a'. In 2006, with a great deal of attendant media attention, journalist/ entrepreneur Peter Shann Ford claimed to have located the 'a' in the waveform of Neil's transmission. Subsequently, more rigorous analyses of the transmission were undertaken by people with professional experience with audio waveforms and, most importantly, audio spectrograms. None of these analyses support Ford's conclusion. The transcription used above honors Neil's intent.] [The raw NASA transcript give the start of this transmission as 109:24:48, which is clearly inconsistent with what has gone before. The Apollo 11 Mission Report gives "initial contact" as 109:24:15 or 02:56:15 GMT/UTC on 21 July 1969. Later in the mission, NASA tells the press that the first step came at 109:24:20. An examination of the restored video indicates that, to the extent that the audio and video tracks are properly synched, Neil puts his left foot firmly on the surface five seconds after the start of his transmission "I'm going to step off the LM now." and six seconds before he starts to say "That's one small step." In June 2011, Journal Contributor Heiko Küffen used the audio track that accompanies the restored video to revise times between 109:20:56 and 109:27:29. Except for the time of "That's one small step" and the transmission that follows - "Yes, the surface is fine and powdery" - there are no differences greater than 2 seconds between Heiko's analysis and the times then given in the ALSJ. I have repeated Heiko's analysis and confirm his results to within 2 seconds. In particular, Heiko gets 109:24:14 for "I'm going to step off the LM now." and I get 109:24:12. The difference is unimportant when compared with other uncertainties. My analysis is based on the time of hatch opening (given as 109:07:33 in the Mission report), which seems to be relatively certain.] [Based on the times of transmissions prior to 109:24:12, Neil started to say "I'm going to step" at 109:24:12, stepped firmly on the surface at 109:24:17, and started "That's one small step" at 109:24:23. Readers interested in the exact timing of events in these transcripts should note that there are notable inconsistencies in the times given in the original NASA transcripts. Clearly, over longer intervals, times in the original transcripts are only suggestive. Discontinuous jumps in the original transcripts occur at notable mission events and elsewhere, probably at the end of tapes or tape segments used by individual transcribers. Over intervals of several minutes, the best audio clips can be used to get relative accuracies of 2-3 seconds.] [After examining the soil disturbance around his left boot, Neil moves his right hand lower on the ladder and steps down with his right foot.] 109:24:48 **Armstrong**: Yes, the surface is fine and powdery. I can kick it up loosely with my toe. It does adhere in fine layers, like powdered charcoal, to the sole and sides of my boots. I only go in a small fraction of an inch, maybe an eighth of an inch, but I can see the footprints of my boots and the treads in the fine, sandy particles. [In discussions about this paragraph, Andrew Chaikin suggested the transcription above for the first sentence. This replaced my original transcription, which was "(Garbled) the surface is fine and powdery."] [At the end of this transmission, Neil lets go of the ladder for the first time.] 109:42:28 **Armstrong**: You've got three more steps and then a long one. 109:42:42 **Aldrin**: Okay. I'm going to leave that one foot up there and both hands down to about the fourth rung up. [Neil's photo AS11-40-5868 shows Buzz with one foot on the bottom rung and, as he says, his hands at the fourth rung.] [Buzz jumps down to the footpad.] 109:42:50 **Armstrong**: There you go. 109:42:53 **Aldrin**: Okay. Now I think I'll do the same (garbled) (Pause) [Buzz tries to jump up to the bottom rung and doesn't quite make it on the first try.] 109:43:01 **Armstrong**: A little more. About another inch. (Pause) [Buzz jumps up to the bottom rung.] 109:43:06 **Armstrong**: There, you've got it. 109:43:08 **Aldrin**: That's a good (last) step. 109:43:10 **Armstrong**: Yeah. About a 3-footer. (Pause) [Buzz jumps back down to the footpad.] 109:43:16 **Aldrin**: Beautiful view! 109:43:18 **Armstrong**: Isn't that something! Magnificent sight out here. 109:43:24 **Aldrin**: Magnificent desolation. (Long Pause) [Still holding on to the ladder with both hands, Buzz hops backwards onto the surface. After a brief moment, he turns to his left toward the MESA.] 109:43:47 **Aldrin**: (Right hand still on the ladder) Looks like the secondary strut had a little thermal effects on it right here, Neil. --- **[Apollo 12](https://history.nasa.gov/alsj/a12/a12.eva1prelim.html)** [After pausing on the next to last rung, Pete steps down to the last one, gets his hands in position and jumps down, sliding his hands along the outside rails as he drops. Once he gets down to the footpad, the bottom rung is about level with his waist. (TV still)] 115:22:16 **Conrad**: (As he lands) Whoopie! Man, that may have been a small one for Neil, but that's a long one for me. (Pause) [Jones - "I understand that there was a bet on your saying that."] [Bean - "Who'd you bet?"] [Conrad - "You know who I bet."] [Bean - "Nope. I forget."] [Conrad - "A reporter, who thought the government put words in our mouths."] [Bean - "Oh!"] [Conrad - (Laughing) "I also had $500 riding on it, but I never got paid."] [Bean - (Laughing) "I didn't know that! Is that right? I kind of remember it, a little. Oh, well."] [Jones - "Do you want that story as part of the record?"] [Bean - "Put it in. It will be good for the myth. We're trying to create a Conrad Myth. Big Bucks on this. Can't have too many human interest things."] [Conrad - "I tell the story, but I don't tell who I bet."] [Actually, Pete does occasionally reveal that the reporter was Oriana Fallaci. A more detailed version of the story can be found in Andrew Chaikin's "A Man on the Moon".] [Pete Conrad was probably the most playful of the moonwalkers - challenged only by Charlie Duke. Ulli Lotzmann tells us that Pete's comment on the portrait link here was always, "If you can't be good, be colorful". Pete was both. A more formal portrait, taken a year or two after the 1991 mission review has also been supplied by Lotzmann.] 115:22:22 **Conrad**: I'm going to step off the pad. (TV still) 115:22:24 **Conrad**: (As his foot touches the surface; TV still) Mark. Off the...Oooh, is that soft and queasy. (Pause, holding on to the ladder as he tests the footing) Hey, that's neat. (Pause) I don't sink in too far. (Pause) I'll try a little...(Letting go of the ladder and stepping out of the LM shadow) Boy, that Sun is bright. That's just like somebody shining a spotlight in your hand. (Pause) Well, I can walk pretty well, Al, but I've got to take it easy and watch what I'm doing. [Pete walks off camera to the right (TV still) and then turns and comes back to the ladder(TV still), walking very slowly, putting one foot in front of the other. Back in the shadow of the LM, he turns and looks to the east.] 115:23:27 **Conrad**: (Gleeful) Boy, you'll never believe it. Guess what I see sitting on the side of the crater! 115:23:30 **Bean**: The old Surveyor, right? 115:23:31 **Conrad**: The old Surveyor. Yes, sir. (Laughing) Does that look neat! It can't be any further than 600 feet from here. How about that? [Al hops down to the footpad. Unlike Pete, he does not let his hands slide down the outer rails as he slowly drops to the surface.] 115:51:53 **Conrad**: (To Al) Okay;... 115:51:53 **Gibson**: Pete, press on. No problem. 115:51:59 **Conrad**: ...turn around and give me a big smile. (Responding to Gibson) Okay. (To Bean ) That a boy. 115:52:01 **Bean**: Okay. [Al turns to his left so that he faces Pete for a formal portrait, keeping his right hand on the ladder. Because he has his gold visor down, we cannot see his face. The picture is AS12-46- 6729. The full set of pictures of Al's climb down to the surface is AS12-46- 6724 to 6729.] [Journal Contributor Ulrich Lotzmann notes that a detail from 6727 "gives a good view on the still working AP12 TV camera. Pete has already begun to loosen the camera (at 115:43:38). It is now upside down, but still fixed by a strap."] 115:52:02 **Conrad**: You look great. Welcome aboard. Okay. (Reading) "Place (70 mm camera on MESA)"...Wait a minute. The chart I didn't get. "Deploy color chart on undisturbed surface." Didn't make it. "Contingency sample area (photos)" I got, and "LMP egress" I got. I'm off for S-band antenni (sic). 115:52:18 **Bean**: Okay. My, that Sun is bright. 115:52:22 **Conrad**: Yeah. Take it easy. 115:52:25 **Bean**: (Moving slowly off camera to the right) It feels good. --- **[Apollo 14](https://history.nasa.gov/alsj/a14/a14-prelim1.html)** [The TV camera is positioned on the MESA to record Al's descent to the surface. The bottom rung of the ladder is about 3 feet - one meter - above the footpad. The ladder is attached to the west strut and, therefore, Al is in deep shadow. He has his visor up.] 113:51:26 **Shepard**: Okay, you're right. Al is on the surface. And it's been a long way, but we're here. (Pause) Well, I can see the reason we have a tilt is because we landed on a slope. The landing gear struts appear to be about evenly depressed. [Ed has his visor up - as Al did - and we can see the central white stripe of his Snoopy helmet. After getting to the bottom rung, he jumps off and falls slowly to the footpad, letting his hands slide down the outer ladder rails.] 113:56:08 **Mitchell**: That last one is a long one. (Pause) (Hopping back up to the first rung of the ladder, just barely) Ascent check. Very easy to do. A little push and just spring right up. --- **[Apollo 15](https://history.nasa.gov/alsj/a15/a15.lrvdep.html)** 119:55:45 **Scott**: Okay, Houston. As I stand out here in the wonders of the unknown at Hadley, I sort of realize there's a fundamental truth to our nature. Man must explore. (Pause) And this is exploration at its greatest. (Long Pause as Dave moves away from the TV camera) Well, I see why we're in a tilt. (Pause) We've got...(Laughs) That's very interesting. There's so much hummocky ground around here (that) we're on a slope of probably about 10 degrees. And the left-rear foot pad is probably about 2 feet lower than the right-rear foot pad. And the left-front's a little low too. But the LM looks like it's in good shape. The Rover's in good shape. (Pause) 120:02:56 **Irwin**: You want me to take it in the contingency sample? 120:02:58 **Scott**: Yeah, wish we had...Oh, we ought to document it. We won't lose it. [Dave wants to wait to collect the glass ball so they can take "before" pictures of it, in-place and undisturbed - before they pick it up. The glass-ball will then be a "documented sample". As per checklist page LMP-4, Jim will get the contingency sample - without documentary photos - as soon as he spends a few minutes getting familiar with one-sixth g.] [As Jim hops down the ladder, he appears to miss the bottom rung and has to use his hands to lower himself to the footpad. In 1989, Jim told me that as he started to get off the pad, it moved under him and he saved himself from a fall by holding on to the right rail.] [Irwin - "When I came down, I did hit on the footpad and it wasn't resting on the surface. It had mainly rotated backwards, and that's what threw me off balance and I thought I was going to fall on my backside. And I was so embarrassed 'cause I thought, 'Man, I'm going to fall flat on my back, on the television.' But I lunged up and caught the ladder with one hand, and that just swung me right out of the field-of-view of the television and I went right around behind the ladder. A few minutes later, I did fall over."] [Jones - "Well, everybody did."] [Irwin - "Yeah. No problem with that. (Laughing) But I didn't want to make my big spill on the way down (the ladder the first time)."] [In the video we see that, as Jim catches himself and starts to swing out of view, he does not have his visor down; and we can see his face and his black-and-white Snoopy helmet clearly. Dave has moved away from the camera to mark the glass sphere.] [Scott, from the 1971 Technical Debrief - "The front footpad was only very lightly on the ground. There was only very light contact."] [Irwin, from the 1971 Technical Debrief - "I question whether it was even in contact with the ground because it was so free to swivel."] [Scott, from the 1971 Technical Debrief - "Well, it was when I got out, because it (had) made an impression on the ground."] [Irwin, from the 1971 Technical Debrief - "It might have made an impression (during the initial touchdown) and then it might have rocked back."] [Scott, from the 1971 Technical Debrief - "The pad was on the ground when I got down the first time. It was pretty solid when I stepped down because I stood on the footpad before I stood on the ground."] 120:03:04 **Irwin**: Boy, that front pad is really loose, isn't it? --- **[Apollo 16](https://history.nasa.gov/alsj/a16/a16.eva1prelim.html)** [We don't see any of John's climb down the ladder but, evidently, he steps off the footpad as he says 'Okay' and immediately comes into view on the north side of the ladder.] 119:04:05 **Young**: There you are: Mysterious and Unknown Descartes. Highland plains. Apollo 16 is gonna change your image. (16-mm camera off) I'm sure glad they got ol' Brer Rabbit, here, back in the briar patch where he belongs. [This is a reference to the Joel Chandler Harris story "How Mr. Rabbit was too sharp for Mr. Fox". In the story, Brer Rabbit has become entangled with the Tar Baby and is caught by Brer Fox. Brer Fox thinks he might roast Brer Rabbit, who says, "I don't care what you do with me, Brer Fox, just so you don't fling me in that briar patch." As it turns out, there is no firewood handy, so Brer Fox thinks about hanging Brer Rabbit, who says that would be much better than being thrown in the briar patch. And so on. On his fourth spaceflight, NASA has finally thrown John in the briar patch.] 119:06:24 **Duke**: (Stepping off the LM) Fantastic! Oh, that first foot on the lunar surface is super, Tony! (Pause) Okay, Tony, we're making little footprints here about 1/2-inch deep; not kicking up really very much (dust). [Duke, from the 1972 Technical Debrief - "My egress went right by the checklist. I came right on out. It was even better than I expected and easier to do. I felt right at home the minute I hit the ground."] --- **[Apollo 17](https://history.nasa.gov/alsj/a17/a17.1ststep.html)** [Cernan - " Getting down the ladder in the suit wasn't any particular problem. It would have been a lot easier without a suit; but, of course, we wouldn't have been going outside without them and they performed just tremendously, admirably. There had been a tremendous amount of technological development in the suit between my EVA on Gemini IX and Apollo 17. I mean, walking on the surface with the mobility of a Gemini EVA suit would have been damn near impossible. It was just an order of magnitude difference in technological development. Many people don't realize the importance and significance of the suit. It was everything. It was radio communications; it was cooling; it was breathing; it was pressurization; it was protection from the sun; it was protection from abrasiveness. It had to provide mobility, dexterity, safety, and reliability. It was a sophisticated spacecraft in its own right, one that has been, I think, overlooked in terms of its importance to the mission."] 117:11:09 **Cernan**: I'm on the footpad. And, Houston, as I step off at the surface at Taurus-Littrow, we'd like to dedicate the first step of Apollo 17 to all those who made it possible. (Pause) [As per CDR-6, Gene will take a moment to get familiar with moving around in one-sixth g. In doing so, he will kick the jettison pag under the Descent Stage and will comment on their surroundings.] 117:11:30 **Cernan**: Jack, I'm out here. Oh, my golly! Unbelievable! Unbelievable; but is it bright in the Sun. (Pause) Okay! We landed in a very shallow depression. That's why we've got a slight pitch-up angle. (It's a) very shallow, dinner-plate-like, dish crater just about the width of the struts (meaning the total span of the landing gear). How you doing, Jack? 117:14:48 **Schmitt**: (As per LMP-6) Hatch is closed, barely. 117:14:51 **Cernan**: Hey, Jack, don't lock it. 117:14:53 **Schmitt**: I'm not going to lock it. 117:14:54 **Cernan**: We've got to go back there. You lose the key, and we're in trouble. [By now, this was an old Apollo joke, having been used in some form by the 11, 12, 15, and 16 crews.] 117:15:01 **Schmitt**: Oh, I'm on the porch! 117:15:05 **Cernan**: Who said this place was smooth? Oh, boy! There's a lot of local depressions here I didn't figure existed. 117:15:17 **Schmitt**: Hey, who's been tracking up my lunar surface?